The following is a piece discussing Rajon Rondo, his statistics this season, and the ever-present question, "What should the Celtics do with Rajon?"
Rajon Rondo. The guy just can't remove himself from headlines it seems. Either people think he's strange and immature because of the way that he carries himself, or he's the greatest point guard of all time (I'm being facetious, you guys) and needs to stay in Boston until he decides to retire. Either he's throwing the ball at his teammates so they can hit jumpers, or he's throwing the ball at the official. Ok, he only did that once. The point remains, though, that as long as Rajon has been in Boston he has been the object of both (sometimes justified) criticism, and overly high praise. This year is no different. Rajon has proven that he has what it takes to put points up on the board for Boston, and has even willed this team back into some games with his aggressiveness. But all in all he is quite a confusing character.
Rajon has played in 22 games this season for the Celtics. He's endured a wrist injury, and now a two game suspension. The Celtics have clearly missed Rondo (never mind the two games against Orlando), and it is easy to see why folks tout Rondo so highly. He's an exceptional athlete. He's a fantastic defender (two time All-Defensive First Team, and one time All-Defensive Second Team). He's quick, he can get to the rim with relative ease, and he can finish at the rim quite well. Hey, his jumper even at least seems to have improved. Maybe it's because he doesn't have the slight hitch in his release that he has had in past seasons, but he's hitting the mid-range jumper with a lot more consistency than he has for most of his career. It will definitely be interesting to see how he holds up.
One of the biggest knocks on Rajon has been his passive play. A lot of times he appears tentative and uninspired -- content to just let the rest of the team run off of screens, wait for his front court to get decent post position and then feed them, or just stand there and use a pick and hope his defender continues to go underneath the screen (which leaves him wide open for a jumper). He doesn't always have a killer instinct. His attack mode isn't always set to "on", and quite frankly it frustrates fans. Take
Derrick Rose for instance. Rose has the ability to shoot, drive, and create for the rest of his team. Within reason, Rondo can do this as well. But his motivation to do this on a consistent basis seems lacking to some fans. While Rose might take the defense to the rim and create a shot for himself at the basket, or give it to Boozer or Noah, Rondo might be content with trying his jumper. That's not always a terrible option (when it goes in), but for a guy like Rondo who has displayed time and time again that he has the ability to penetrate and create for both himself and the rest of the team, it's disheartening and leaves you wondering why he is tentative and passive. Fans often wonder, "Why does Rondo pick and choose his spots so poorly sometimes?" A valid question about a player who quite often seems content to play the background.
Rondo is taking the most field goal attempts of his entire career, 11.9 per game. He's making 5.8 of those shots for a field goal percentage of 48.5. He's also getting to the line more times per game than he ever has (5.0 attempts per game), but he's averaging just about the same amount of shots per game at the rim as he has over his entire career. So, perhaps his moves towards the basket are more aggressive and potent at this point this season.
Rajon is shooting the second most shots of his career from 16-23 feet at 3 attempts per game, and he is making 1.2 of those shots per game (1.2-3, 42%). He's also averaging the lowest percentage of shots assisted within that range (only 25.9% of his shots between 16-23 feet are assisted) which is obvious by the fact that he is shooting these shots usually as his defender goes underneath screens instead of defending him closely.
In terms of his actual production, Rondo has been the best in transition situations (we knew he was good at that already), and in post-up situations. In transition opportunities he is averaging 1.06 points per play and shooting 47-75 (62.7%). A good portion of those made field goals have been at the rim. (
All of these statistics according to MySynergySports.com)The numbers from the post are what is most surprising to me. There weren't any of these plays unveiled with more than one opportunity in a single game before the loss against Detroit on February 15th. And while these plays only account for 3.7% of plays involving Rondo, his numbers have been fantastic. He is averaging 1.14 points per play from the post, and shooting 7-11 (63.6%). But as
Beckley Mason from HoopSpeak.com pointed out here, Rondo has been able to use this post position recently to set up other guys on the floor. This has been a decent option for Boston when guys like
Chris Wilcox and Jermaine O'Neal are on the floor -- guys who generally don't create shots for themselves, and can't hit a consistent mid-range jumper. Having Rondo set up from the post creates a unique spacing situation for the rest of the team, and might be something Doc goes to more often to give Boston an added dimension offensively.
When you look at Rondo's shooting numbers as a whole, though, it mildly dampens the reality that he is hitting his jumper (at least to the naked eye) with a bit more consistency than usual. He is shooting 47% of his shots as jumpers, and his eFG% on his jumpers is only an underwhelming .379%. This has long been one of the biggest knocks against Rondo. He has all of the necessary tools to become a prolific point guard. He can attack, he can distribute, and he can defend. He's 25 years old. Well, he turns 26 tomorrow. Happy birthday, Rajon! But the point remains that he still has plenty of good years ahead of him to develop into a consistently dominant point guard.
And with there being many good years ahead of him I would argue that keeping Rondo in Boston is the best overall option for the future of the team. As Jeff has argued many times, "blowing it up" just doesn't seem like a viable option. There don't seem to be too many teams knocking down the Celtics' door to acquire aging vets, or even perhaps Rondo. And if there were would it even be worth it? Is giving Rondo away to a team for someone like
Pau Gasol (31 years old, and not the only piece that the Celtics would need in the immediate future to make a run at a title) worth it? For that matter would it be worth it to give up Ray, KG, Pierce or any combination of the three for Pau? I don't think so, personally.
After March 1st when players who signed in the offseason can be traded, then and only then will the options open up potentially for the Celtics. But even then, the greatest option for the Celtics in the future appears to be to wait until the free agent period and make a run at some big time names. The options aren't as wide-ranging as one would hope, but with the contracts the Celtics will have on the books for next season it isn't out of the realm of possibility for the Celtics to be able to attract two max contracts in Boston. Who? I don't know. Dwight Howard seems like one option, but I personally don't see Dwight in Boston. Regardless, the best option for Boston heading forward is to keep Rajon Rondo as a Celtic. Despite his emotional deficiencies and his tendency to be one of the most confusing players I've ever seen, he really is a special player. He's a top-10 point guard in the NBA (if not a top-5), and his upside far outweighs his downside.
Rajon is having a really unique season, and when he returns from his suspension it will be interesting to see how he handles himself. Will he take it upon himself to augment the Celtics abilities, or will he continue to take nights off. He's capable of helping the Celtics every night that he takes the floor -- as is evident by his great start to the season and his league leading two triple-doubles this year. He's phenomenal on some nights, and lackadaisical and confusing on other nights. Still, Rajon Rondo's capabilities are vital to this team's success during the second half of the season. There are only a handful of other point guards in the league better than Rondo, and trading him away for anything less than a top-tier center or a top-tier point guard just isn't worth it for Boston. Will Ainge agree? Who knows. But as it stands, he's a Celtic, he's the best point guard in Boston, and he's as intriguing a character as he has ever been. He has many quirks, and just as many phenomenal skills. And we love him for that.
Depends
I say again, it depends on WHO you add to this team that should determine if you keep Rondo. Add some running pieces (including fast big guys- (Baragani/Smith) and you keep him. Add a post player like Howard, and i think you trade him to get another rebounder or wing creator, and PG that is a deep threat.
P stoff - February 21, 2012
disagree with the howard comment i think they would work great together because both can run the floor rondo need some one to give alley op to and he will be more eager to shot becaus ehe know a big man can get it if he miss giving him more confidence
EXER123 - February 21, 2012
Speaking to the Smith or Bargs comment
I think Smith would be fine, but I wouldn’t take Bargs. Smith is a great fit, and I would try every way possible to keep Rondo if I get Smith. It’s well-documented that Dwight has a good relationship with Smith, and Rondo is good friends with J-Smoove. Would be a pretty decent lineup IMO even before you fill out the rest of the team. Can it happen? Almost assuredly no.
JoshZavadil - February 21, 2012
Agree
Whatever pieces are put around him he can play with. Rondo darts to the basket, draws a defender and alley oops to DH. Or Rondo goes to the hoop and misses one of his spin shots and DH Dunks the rebound. Center overplays DH, Rondo Alley Oops for another dunk. Get the idea. Rondo and Howard would be killer.
I agree that any group of runners and Rondo would be great. They’d be fun to watch, especially if they pressed and were a ball hawking team.
I think right now the team that he isn’t so great with is ours. We have no inside presence. Rarely does anyone drive to the hoop (PP ones or twice a game). We are strictly a jump shooting team and that’s not good for Rondo. Defender don’t worry about our Big Men going to the hoop. Heck, even when they get it close to the hoop they want to finger roll or shoot a fade away jumper. During the championship season, KG would go done there and sometimes Perk would post up, not the pretties thing but a change of pace. And PP was a constant threat to drive and draw fouls. We now live and die by the jump shot!!!
badax33 - February 21, 2012
Agreed
jurrasicearl - February 21, 2012 via mobile
good stats in this. despite that true fg% he has def been shooting that mid range jumper very consistently lately.
ianboyextreme - February 21, 2012
Agreed.
It seems like the more necessary it has been for him to kind of jumpstart the offense, the better his jumper has been. Hopefully, he will still remain confident and keep hitting it with a bit of regularity.
JoshZavadil - February 21, 2012
He's Lincendiary
johnnymost - February 21, 2012
+1
JoshZavadil - February 21, 2012
My opinion....
…is unless we can get DW or someone of that magnitude to possibly attract Howard, we have to keep him. Otherwise might as well play out the year and then trade him before draft time and acquire some young talent use draft picks and start from scratch.
Rondo is an exceptional talent with the right players around him. If we ca’t get him that talent it’s time for him to go. He’s very attractive right now because he’s comes at a bargain.
I think it’s an easy choice for Danny get equal or greater talent or stay put until Howard makes his move.
Steal by Bird - February 21, 2012
An example of next years squad with Rondo. Assumes letting Ray and KG walk or retire and not signing Green but getting 1 good free agent and 2 2nd or 3rd tier guys
Starters:
Rondo
Eric Gordon
Pierce
Bass
Brooke Lopez
Bench
Bradley
Chase Budinger
Pietrus
3J
Moore
Wilcox
Rookie
Rookie
Fill out as you wish beyond that
The point is that team, sans PP, will run and show off Rajons ability better than the current Celtics
wahz - February 21, 2012
I'd replace Eric Gordon with OJ Mayo because I think we have a FAR better chance of landing him
But if somehow NOH let’s Gordon go and he doesn’t end up in Indy, I think we need to have a competent backup 2 guard due to Gordon’s proneness (word?) to injury.
Otherwise, I think this is a realistic projected line up.
RJ87 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
Never been a fan of mayo but for the right price he could be a good fit
Gordon would probably only come here if we overpaid him a lot and it doesn’t seem worth it with all of his health problems.
kg2128 - February 21, 2012
Agreed
Should replace Eric Gordon for mayo… And prefer Howard more than Lopez … With that lineup, we have a chance against Miami and Chicago
Celtics5 - February 21, 2012
you can't get Howard probably at all and if you do the others can't come. The additions of Budinger, Mayo/Gordon, Lopez might be a bridge too far as it is
If Mayo can be coached, sure Id still think Lopez, Bass, PP, Mayo, Rondo would be a solid group and those bench guys are a decent group especially if the 4-5 youngsters pan out
wahz - February 21, 2012
True point guards and skilled big men are precious commodities in the NBA
If the Celtics end up trading Rondo and get neither of these in return it’s likely a bad sign for the future of the team.
BlackMass - February 21, 2012
scoring seems sth exceptionally hard
for Rondo. he has been hitting that jumpshot more than ever recently, but it is not a consistent threat. many say that he’s a great finisher around the rim, but I disagree. he doesn’t get much lift when he drives to the hoop, so the lay up always has to be a twisted throw with a spin. it is also much easier to block for opponent big men as he doesn’t get up high in the air. comparing his drive to rose’s makes this pretty clear. rose elevates a lot when he goes for a lay up and can finish at a high rate or get fouled easily due to this. Rondo usually just flips a shot up, so doesn’t frequently get a foul call and the shot has a lower possibility going in. ppl tend to think he’s a good finisher because of the high-degree-of-difficulty lay-ups he makes. thing is, he should be able to get the lay-ups without making them look exceptionally difficult. Rondo’s offense just doesn’t seem consistent or reliable, not only his much-criticzed jumper but also his highly-praised lay ups.
That being said, I love his post moves. Personally I think we should go to that move every single time until the other side double-teams or deals with it.
greysoul0614 - February 21, 2012
Rondo's shooting numbers
You have to be careful to break it down a bit. His eFG% is very clearly dragged down by his 3PT% which has dropped recently to just 25%. Aside from that his FG% overall is 48.5% which is well above the league average for PGs (43%) and in fact 5th among full time PGs.
When you include his 3PT shooting, which has an eFG% of just 37.5%, it drags his overall eFG% down to 49.2%, which is 18th among full-time PGs though still slightly above league average for PGs (47.8%).
From 16-23 feet, where Rondo continues to take most of his jump shots away from the rim, he is shooting 42%, which compares favorably to such names as CP (43%), Westbrook (43%) & Rose (40%) but is no where near hot shooters like Curry (61%) or Nash (60%).
So basically, Rondo is an above average mid-range jump shooter for a PG, but is still not too be confused with a 3PT shooter. Fortunately, he’s at least smart enough not to take too many 3PT shots. So he doesn’t really hurt the team there.
His TS% is similarly reflects that he is still struggling from the free throw line. His 61.5% FT% is still terrible. So again, despite his stellar FG%, mentioned above, when you combine these, his TS% drops to 52.4% which, is just league average for full-time PGs (52.6%).
It’s not a new story. If Rondo could turn the corner on FTs, his overall stats would be phenomenal.
Shooting is, of course only a tiny part of the story with Rondo.
More compelling to illustrate his offensive worth is that when he is on the floor, our offense is nearly +11 points per 100 possessions better than when he is off the floor. Only KG (9.18) comes remotely close to that on our team.
mmmmm - February 21, 2012
+2000
JoshZavadil - February 21, 2012 via iPhone app
mmmmm, great info. where do you go for stats? Thanks
Ibemebe - February 22, 2012
I go to several sites
http://www.basketball-reference.com is great for most things and is well organized.
For advanced stats in a sort of eclectic layout, http://www.82games.com is pretty cool.
For shot location data and a bunch of just plain really cool discrete stats, http://www.hoopdata.com is great – that’ one is what I used for a lot of the above.
Finally, for exhaustive +/- data, http://www.basketballvalue.com is priceless.
mmmmm - February 22, 2012
I'm late getting back, but I had to say, Thank you, Very kind of you. Thanks.
Ibemebe - February 23, 2012
Rondo isn't the problem
He has a reasonable contract, is at the least a top 10 point guard, and is a great defender and playmaker. Hard to imagine any trade that includes an overall improvement at the point guard position for the same kind of money.
I agree that he shows some attitude issues, but they are ones that the veterans who surround him and our veteran coach ought to be able to handle. Only if it is determined that these are and will remain forever unsolvable should he go.
I have said it before and will say it again — the kind of mental and physical toughness that Rondo showed coming back to play like he did against Miami to finish the game one-handed, making spectacular defensive and scoring plays… well, if that isn’t the Celtic way, I don’t know what is.
Do I want more from him, and do I want to see more maturity on and off the court — absolutely! But I believe that he showed us that night that he has it in him. Doc and his veteran teammates should be able to find that Rondo and help him show up every night.
And not just by psychologically figuring him out, but by having everyone around him leaving it all on the court — tough D, moving without the ball to get open, unselfish play, running the floor hard. crashing the boards to start fast-breaks, attacking the rim… fundamentals. Rondo starts to falter every time the team around him starts getting lazy — hard to be a motivated set-up man when your teammates aren’t setting themselves up.
The leader of the future or the face of the franchise? Maybe not. But our solid point guard that is part of the building process
-you’d better believe I want to see him stick around, playing at the level we all know he can.Old West Celtics Sox Fan - February 22, 2012
+1
BlackMass - February 22, 2012
+1
I like rondo and personally see him as not the guy to trade. In fact, I don’t say we need to trade anyone at this point. Honestly, my answer to doc is this – change your starting line up. Run this -
Rondo- Dooling- Moore
Allen- Bradley- Quis(his real position)
Pierce- Pietrus
Kg- Bass- JJJ
Wilcox- o’neal
Starting Wilcox gives rondo a guy to run with and it seems to work A LOT. If only the SOB would stay healthy. Then with o’neal locking down the center bass can produce and worry less about his defense as an undersized 4 man. I don’t like bradly at point I see him as a 2 guard not a handler. Let dooling grab more time and try to find a rhythem. Just my thoughts.
RR_The_Future - February 22, 2012 via mobile
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