The Celtics are struggling. That is something that is overly obvious, and something that is frustrating a lot of Boston fans. The reasons behind these struggles aren't immediately known, but there are a lot of things that are necessary to consider when trying to understand exactly why Boston is having a hard time.
The first thing to consider is this -- the Celtics are still integrating a ton of new players into a complex system (both on offense and defense), and two weeks of training camp and two preseason games are not long enough to figure those things out. At this point during last season (9 games into the season), Boston had stormed out of the gate. They were winning games at a spectacular rate, and had even beaten the proclaimed "world-beaters" from Miami. This year, though, things are different. Players endured an extended lockout, and are now having to cram 66 games into a season. While many people argued that the shortened season would bode well for the Celtics it is quite evident that this is not the case. This team has yet to jell together, and it is showing in almost every aspect of the game. The second unit is sporadic at best, and the first unit is terribly inconsistent at times. Rajon Rondo hasn't quite picked up a feel for all of his new teammates (save Brandon Bass), and seems to be having a difficult time understanding when to turn on the "passive Rondo" switch and be an all-out facilitator, or turn on "All-Star and aggressor Rondo" switch and drive the Celtics to the point that they need to be in during a game.
Another obvious factor impacting the Celtics this season is age. I have denied it for far too long, too. Kevin Garnett is fantastic as a player. He will always have a special place in my heart as a fan of the Celtics, and a fan of basketball in general. However, he is not anywhere close to the Kevin Garnett of even 2008 or 2009. He is struggling (massively at times) defensively, and was downright abused by Dirk Nowitzki during the recent game against Dallas. He still talks a lot, and he still rebounds decently well, but he is no longer the post player that he was in the past. His forte at this point is the pick-and-pop jumper that used to make his offensive game so lethal. Kevin is averaging his lowest percentage of made attempts at the rim per game during his entire time in Boston (1.7), and is averaging a career low amount of attempts at the rim (2.2). The bulk of Kevin's shots are still coming from 16-23 feet (4.9 per game), and he is making a 5-year low from that distance as well. He just doesn't have the lift, the agility, or the fierceness that made him such an intimidating player in the post and on defense. As for the rest of the team's aging? Well, I've already written about how well Ray Allen is shooting. He is shooting well, and the numbers are what tell that story. But what numbers don't tell are how many fewer chances he is being able to create for himself, how many times he is having to run off of multiple screens to get even the slightest bit of space. Ray is aging, too, guys. Paul Pierce has been the most consistent Celtic over the past few years, and you would expect that from your captain. Still, his injury at the beginning of the season slowed his progress, and he is having to get into shape on the fly. It's happening, but perhaps not as quickly as we would hope.
When digging deeper into some statistics it seems easy to understand why the Celtics are having troubles. Have they gotten better since they were ranking near the bottom of the NBA in defensive and offensive efficiency ratings? Sure. But for Boston the numbers that are being put up are nowhere near where they need to be in order to be competitive enough to go the distance in a tough Eastern Conference. First, let's look at pace. Pace is the average possessions used by a team in a single game per 48 minutes. The league average for pace is 94.1. Boston is dead last with a 90.3 pace. Yes, their slow offensive pace has been very typical during Doc Rivers' years in Beantown. But at the beginning of this season Doc made the statement that this team was going to likely run the floor more, and get out into more fastbreak opportunities. Obviously, there have been some injuries and other factors that haven't allowed the C's to do this with regularity, but being dead last in pace for a team that already is struggling to find ways to score enough points to keep games close is very disheartening. The Celtics also have a very high turnover rate (TOR). This is simply the percentage of possessions per game that end in turnovers. The NBA average TOR is 14.30. Boston's is third highest in the league at 16.08.
While Boston is definitely struggling in many areas of the game there are quite a few places where the team is picking up the production, and performing at a very decent rate. The Celtics most effective play so far this season has been plays resulting in shots for the roll man in the pick-and-roll. Out of 57 of these plays 50 of them have resulted in shots. The C's are scoring 58% of the time (1.21 points per play, fourth in the NBA) when these plays are executed. It seems like this has resulted in attempts for Brandon Bass and Kevin Garnett more times than not, but still, the fact that this is still a productive area for Boston is a definite positive. The C's are also the second best team in the NBA in plays resulting in shots off of screens. Boston is scoring 1.15 points per possession on these plays, and shooting 48.6%. 31 of the 82 plays have resulted in three-point attempts, and the Celtics are converting 54.8% of those shots. It helps to have guys like Ray Allen on the floor for these occasions, since, you know, he specializes in being the NBA's greatest three-point shooter of all-time.
Boston leads the league in 3P% shooting 44.6% from beyond the arc. That's 11 percentage points above the league average of 33.6%. The C's also have the fourth highest true shooting percentage (TS%), shooting 55.4% -- while the league average is 52.0%. Likewise, Boston is fourth in the league in field goal percentage (FG%) shooting 46.9% from the floor. The league average is 44.2%. These are fantastic numbers. If you were judging the C's based on these statistics alone you would think they were at the top of the league (the teams around them in the rankings are Miami, Denver, Philly, OKC -- all good teams). But the Celtics just aren't scoring at a frequent enough pace. The opportunities are there. There players are there. Now, it's a matter of jelling together and finding a way to fit the pieces all of the pieces together.
The Celtics certainly have displayed some deficiencies so far this season, and they will without a doubt remain with the team until the end of the season. The Celtics are an old squad searching for a way to stay competitive in an increasingly youth-dominated league. But don't lose hope just yet. The Celtics have proved time and time again that although they may struggle at times they will make the proper adjustments to be competitive when it is crunch time. Will Boston be a 1-4 seed in the playoffs this year? They way the team is playing right now I would have to say that is unlikely. There are far too many teams that are playing better and more consistent basketball. However, with time, I think that the Celtics will begin figuring things out and start to take advantage of the opportunities they have been missing during the first nine games. This season is still young, but this team is not. But champions find ways to produce despite adverse circumstances. This season, more than ever, we will see what this championship core can do to produce given the adverse circumstances they are already facing, and will continue to face during the shortened season.
As a Celtics fan, though, I encourage you to not get too upset. Yes, that's a tall task. Celtics fans have become so accustomed to winning that struggles just don't sit well with the majority of the fan base. But take a step back and realize the task at hand for this team. Try to leave the expectations at the door, give the team and coaching staff time to figure out what they do well and then what they can do to use those strengths to be effective, and enjoy every single win. These days are the end of a glorious era in Boston -- an era that brought one banner, and with a little luck and skill could bring another. Regardless, the Celtics will inevitably fight on, and work through their struggles. And we as fans will be right there behind them every step of the way.
0 recs | 29 comments
Not giving up on them yet...
But a couple more months of this type of play and all bets are off. Good article. Hoping for the best.
GO CELTICS!
green18, 19, 20... - January 12, 2012
Well
I’m alright if they lose once in a while, and not every team can win every game. But losing consecutive games in a row? Unacceptable!
SparzWizard - January 12, 2012
Mix the old with the new...
…I’ve posted it before and I’ll probably post it again. Doc needs to quit starting an almost geriatric lineup. The team might be able to survive with one 30+ frontline guy, but the combo or JO and KG is just brutal right now. Neither can move their feet well enough after the first few minutes and it’s showing against the good teams.
For the first time we have a somewhat of a decent and deep bench especially at the SF position with both Pietrus and Daniels, so why not start one of them alongside Bass. At least Rondo won’t be a one man fast break.
I don’t know where you got that Pace stat you used in the article but it’s pretty good indicator the old men together on the floor isn’t working.
Despite the loss yesterday, the C’s still had a shot at the end to win it which tells me this team still has enough talent and veteran savy to compete with the elite. But Doc has to find a better mix on the floor from the beginning or it’s always going to be an uphill battle.
yakyakyak - January 12, 2012
offense
Doc has been saying he wants to up-tempo offense every year. In 2008 we did alot of damage in transition- (running to three point line with House, POsey, Allen) but people got used to that. Frankly, even in that year we were ATROCIOUS at finishing three on two situations or finishing at the rim. We just don’t have guys that can get a seam and exploit it for a dunk, Only Bass seems to want to dunk— and Rondo can do it but often flips up a finger roll for some reason. There is no speed to couple with Rondo consistently, so we walk it up and he pulls it back to run a play. Can you imagine Rondo on the floor with a Wing and a forward that could fill lanes and finish? We work too hard to get shots, and never even try to crash the boards— hence our pace and shot attempts dwindle. That margin allows us to win if we play well, but just a little bit of an off night and we are done against any above average team.
P stoff - January 12, 2012
love this article i agree100 0/0
go boston go you are #1
7tony2 - January 12, 2012
I'm still holding out that this team can pull it together...
But I just can’t help but feel that something is lost out there, and I don’t know if it’s something that can be reestablished. Our offense is sputtering, but it’s always done that. What bothers me is our defense.
There were a couple of plays last night that felt like “writing on the wall” type moments. Ray botches a reverse layup, gets rebounding position and still has several rebounds tipped from beyond his reach…Pierce’s overall conditioning, and missed dunk. And any day that KG gets crossed over by Dirk is a day that should be long forgotten and never spoken of.
I still believe, but I am more than a little worried.
redbridge13 - January 12, 2012
Also...
This has never been a team that has been truly dominant in the sense that they blow out opponents and play 48 minutes of flawless basketball, think of the battles against the Bulls and Hawks in years past, but even when those series went the distance or when crucial games stayed close, you just knew the Celts were going to pull it out. They had a bravado to them…regardless of age or players, that’s what I need to see return for this team to be back in contention status.
redbridge13 - January 12, 2012
I think father time took that bravado
Even when they were playing .500 ball back in 2009-2010 you could always believe that this big3 could pull it together and they did. They were sloppy during the season but when it counted they turned it up and got so close to a championship. This year all 3 of them are showing their age a lot more, they are still effective but not consistently and Rondo has to be leaned on way more than even last season. Joshzavadil makes a good point, Ray has been the most effective of the big3 by far on offense but he depends so much on assists by other players. Pierce has the best chance of returning to last seasons form, let’s hope he recovers and gets into shape asap. Garnett is definitely slower and less effective than before, though I feel like people are exaggerating his drop in defense (even a couple years ago he didn’t stop every single player 1on1).
kg2128 - January 12, 2012
As long as...
The Celtics don’t give up, I’m not going to give up on them. The losses are definitely disheartening but at the end of the day I’m a Celtic and I always will be a celtic. Maybe it’s because of the strong tradition of basketball in Boston or something— but I feel like being a celtics fan is more than just watching/supporting the team because of their wins—its more like we’re a kin—an extension of the celtics family. We see the changes, mistakes, and challenges that our fellow celtics face and we stick by them to encourage and cheer them on. We’re happy with them for the wins and we’re sad and disappointed with them for the losses and mistakes. Haha but maybe that’s just me! :)
Great article btw.
ilovemyceltics - January 12, 2012 via mobile
Concerned
After 9 games, I am concerned where we are at. That said it is much too early to give up on the Team.
Forget the endless Stats and trust your eyes. In the recent loss to the Mav’s we looked old and tired. Rondo wants to run, however his Teamates are not up to it. Our bench seems to be a collection of “journeymen”. Lastly, Doc will not incorporate Rookies into the rotation.
Beat Chicago tommorrow night and we’ll all feel a little better!
Glen B - January 12, 2012
Doc
It has to be discouraging— Wilcox leads team in % rebounding per minute- and Stiemsma brings energy to the team in multiple ways. Yet they play a total of 6 minutes against Dallas. It wasn’t that JO and KG were ripping up the boards out there, so what’s up? kG’s ‘defense" on Dirk’s last play was a combination of hideous posture and poor positioning (if you play that tight, you can’t let him get by you with one step). This team needs energy! We played all the bigs fairly equally in our wins, and kept everyone’s minutes below 30. yes they weren’t the best teams, but this at least gives you an indication of what COULD be strengths as you progress through the year. Its one thing to stick with a hot hand, but Doc has a habit of leaving a possible spark on the bench while the guy playing is having an off night—- then complains about lack of exactly what the other player could have brought. We can win, yes, and I’m not throwing in the towel. but Danny has acknowleged the 2 major problems (rebounding and last 5 minutes of game) and much of this is philosophy (positioning) and coaching decisions.
P stoff - January 12, 2012
+1
I agree. Dont know what docs problem is. I like doc as our coach but I dont get some of the things he does. Why not play the young guys? Cuz we might lose? Thats already happening. He should give it a shot, whats the worst thing that can happen…we lose. Im not giving up on this team but I can pull my hair out watching a team with 4 all star players and we go on offensive droughts nightly and we dont do basic fundamentals like rebound, boxing out or smart passes…it really is unbelievable that these problems happen any team at a professional level with guys making MILLIONS
Kgwillkillyou - January 12, 2012 via mobile
+1
totally agreed.
Kein - January 13, 2012
+1
mdowell04 - January 12, 2012
That really was a great article. I have a better understanding of why the team sucks right now.
Unfortunately, Old cannot be coached. My heart went out when Larry bounced his chin on the floor. When I watched a smaller player out hustle KG for a rebound last night I felt the same thing. Sorry. It is the way I feel
johnnymost - January 12, 2012 via mobile
+.5
I felt bad for bird when he got old cuz he would play hard all the time…i dont feel bad fAor our old guys because they play so half hearted it seems. no one smaller than kg should be getting rebounds that often over him. Thats just him thowing out the fundamentals. PUT A BODY ON SOMEONE AND GRAB THE REBOUND. They have to want to do it. Dont mean to pick on kg cuz they all play lazy and half hearted a lot. Just my opinion
Kgwillkillyou - January 12, 2012 via mobile
Some Yogi Berra quotes that could apply thus far
“You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn’t enough in the second half you give what’s left.”
“The other teams could make trouble for us if they win.”
“If you don’t know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else.”
“This is like deja vu all over again.”
“We made too many wrong mistakes”
" The future ain’t what it used to be "
“Half the lies they tell about me aren’t true."
“90% of the game is half mental."
"It ain’t over till it’s over."
bbeingphilled - January 12, 2012 via mobile
I have been watching basketball for a long time....
and this is just not a contending team. They are just not. Danny needs to blow it up at the trade deadline. They look old and slow and have little scoring pumch in their second unit.
bewareofdware - January 12, 2012
"He (KG) is struggling (massively at times) defensively, and was downright abused by Dirk Nowitzki during the recent game against Dallas. "
I just don’t understand the basis for this comment.
KG was man-on-man Dirk most all of the night. Dirk was held to just 16 points which KG matched.
And three of those points happened on that last play which was far more due to Bass being out of position and late for the help defense than KG. If Bass shows body in the paint properly he either is there in time to set for a charge or his proximity dissuades Dirk from driving and instead settling for a jump shot.
By far our paint defensive problems have been of this nature, not ‘KG getting old’. Bass, Wilcox, Stiemsma – even JO, though to a lesser extent – these guys have been consistently mis-timing their help defense. This is tangible and you can watch and count these mistakes in each game that have lead to several points each game.
Oh, and KG also ripped down 10 rebounds last night while getting ‘downright abused’. He’s also grabbed a very solid 24.2% of all defensive rebounds so far this year. Not as good as the stellar 28.7% he posted last year, but only a hair under the numbers he posted the first three years with the Celtics (25.1, 26.7, 24.8).
All that said – these are silly numbers so far. Too small a sample to tell whether KG is going to pick it up and return to last year’s stellar form or if he is ‘done’ and ready for the fork.
He’s not the player he was 6 years ago. But so far he’s not the corpse that some keep trying to portray him as.
I also strongly disagree that Pace is telling you anything useful or that we even want it to be a high number. A high Pace number doesn’t mean you are running the ball on breaks and a low number doesn’t mean that you aren’t. The Pace number has more to do with how much shot clock each team is using and will go down for teams with strong transition D.
The exact Pace numbers float with the league – rule changes and broad changes in defensive schemes/fads make the average pace of the league go up and down, but we can compare the C’s by their rank in each season. What we find is that, while it is not a lock-down fact, there is a strong correlation between our more successful teams (winning percentage, deep runs in the playoffs) and a low Pace ranking.
Some select Celtic teams their W-L% and their Pace ranking that season:
As you can see, we generally have done better with a slow-pace, emphasizing strong transition D, forcing our opponents into half-court sets, chewing up shot clock.
mmmmm - January 12, 2012
Also, keep in mind that Pace is itself not going to improve your net margin on the scoreboard.
Both teams get the same number of possessions in a game, plus-or-minus one.
So a higher Pace is not going to necessarily help anything. More trips up and down the floor for us is accompanied by an equal number for them. What we need is to be more efficient in scoring on our possessions and getting stops on their possessions.
So far our ORtg is 103.5 points per 100 possessions and our DRtg is 103.6 pp100.
Yep. The net is -.1.
That is very indicative of a record that is hovering around .500 and also of a lot of close games.
Right this moment – a higher Pace would actually hurt us!
I posted numbers elsewhere that suggested that in order to be a ‘contender’ we need that net ORtg-DRtg differential to be up at least around +5.5 and preferably higher. In 2008 it was +11.3!!!
Whether that comes on the offensive end or the defensive end first isn’t important – we need improvement on both ends.
Our bench bigs really really need to improve their help defense behind KG and most of the team just HAS to start to shoot the ball better. Our team shooting% numbers look good, but it’s currently being buoyed by Ray’s other-worldly 3PT shooting.
mmmmm - January 12, 2012
KG has no hops at all anymore
when you’re 7 feet tall and play with a lot of heart….you’ll get some rebounds. But I keep seeing him actually having position, boxing out his man, and losing the rebound because he can barely get 6 inches off the ground and can’t even get up high enough to get an ‘over the top’ call. I keep seeing opponents snatching rebounds right out of his hands going stright up, standing right behind him.
O’Neal looks even worse. What happened to the ‘MVP of training camp’? He looks completely washed up and overmatched. I would rather see Steamroller get the minutes and watch him develop. We are going to get KILLED on the boards all year.
bewareofdware - January 13, 2012
+1
Appreciate the corrections in analysis. I was always under the ill-informed impression that there was a direct correlation to the low pace number and the fact the C’s don’t work the break and get out an run. Though, I knew it had to do with the amount of shot clock used. I guess my initial point was that with a lower pace number, but not as high of production from both units it doesn’t matter how fast or slow you are going, in the games they have lost I would say they generally have not done a great job in points per possession, which the way I understand it would help the C’s if they have a slow pace. If you’re slow you have to score. Especially with the uncharacteristic defensive deficiencies some of the units have been having.
As far as KG goes, I appreciate the insight and correction as well. I realize he is rebounding well. I believe I even said he was still decent at that. But there is no denying he is the not the defender he once was. He has been worked quite a few times this season whereas the old KG would have stood strong and stoned his opponent cold. I don’t think he is “done” per se, but I’ve seen enough this year to realize he isn’t a fantastic defender anymore. Thanks so much for the comment and insight, and I hope I explained my thoughts better. Go C’s!
JoshZavadil - January 12, 2012 via iPhone app
Austin Rivers
Somehow Doc has to see how Coach K manages each year to bring FRESHMAN up to speed Quickly and seamlessly. He does this by PLAYING THEM! If your system is that complex that young guys take 2 years to understand it, you might want to tweak it. Anyone going to argue coach K’s consistency in this realm? I imagine Doc would be just as frustrated to see his son languish on the bench, especially when he is worthy of playing time. Danny can only evaluate what he has by seeing these young guys play—
P stoff - January 12, 2012
Josh, another good effort, IMHO.
Regarding pace….
The Cs don’t have to be near the top, but….
it would help if they could pick it up at times. Easy baskets are easy baskets. They need those now more than ever.
someone mentioned personnel – that is the dilemma. The starters are geared for a slower pace except for RR. Rondo needs some horses to run with.
KG at center…meh. They need help in the middle.
steals and created turnovers… they help more than you might think, especially with an aging team. Again they often lead to easy baskets.
rebounding….it is the differential that is the most important stat. How do they do against other teams. That number has been unimpressive for a while now.
I believe this team will play ‘ugly’ for a while more. They will be slow getting it together, IMO. But…if they continue like they are…Ainge starts making calls.
Tom Halzack - January 13, 2012
rebounding….it is the PERCENTAGE that is the most important stat.
that’s what measures how effectively you are getting the rebounds that are available. Further, since there are strategic reasons to not always emphasize going after offensive rebounds, the only real telling stat is the defensive rebounding percentage – since all teams ALWAYS want to grab those.
The ‘differential’ is a bit dubious because that’s a counting stat which is going to be affected by a) how many shots each team takes and b) how many misses each team has.
Rebounding totals are not a reliable measure. Every year the teams that shoot poorly and play poor transition defense tend to also rank high in offensive rebound totals. They also tend to have poor records. We don’t want to be one of those teams.
Most recent years we have always been fine in DRB% – usually in the top 8 or so each year and only percentage points away from the top teams.
We were doing okay in this regard this year until the Pacer’s game when we dropped like a rock in the DRB% standings. We actually grabbed 75% of the defensive rebound chances in the Mavs game, but that only brought our DRB% overall up to 72.8% – which is slightly below NBA average (73.7%) at 20th. I’d like to see us climb back up into the top 10 at least. The thing is, that’s not that far – the Heat are currently ranked 10th at 74.6%. Just one game can swing us up & down the standings at this early stage.
Our rebounding is not ideal, but not really our biggest problem. I’m more concerned about our poor shooting the last couple of games and our defensive rotations in the paint. Our help defense is killing us.
mmmmm - January 13, 2012
I have to disagree with you mmmmm....
You are talking about what might be called ‘macro’ stats.
The differential is a better measure of how you do against each opponent in your respective matches. That is all that truly matters. It doesn’t matter what your opponents’ macro stats are if they can’t accomplish those stats against your team.
The differential is the best indicator, not dubious at all. You can run round and round with the other stats til the cows come home. The pedal hits the metal in in the games you actually play against your opponents. Those are the only stats that matter – to your team.
The KG era Cs had very good differentials (best in league IIRC) in the first couple of years, regardless of the Oreb and Dreb numbers and pcts. They have largely trended downward since then.
But…saying that…there is generally a correlation between the ‘macros’ (your numbers) and the differential spreads.
The differentials is about who forces their will on who – regardless of the style of ball each team plays. That figure is more telling than any other.
Tom Halzack - January 13, 2012
You are going to have define 'differential' then
because otherwise I just don’t understand your point.
I define ‘differential’ as the difference between two counting numbers. But the counts of Celtic offensive rebounds and Celtic defensive rebounds and opponent offensive rebounds and opponent defensive rebounds are apples, oranges, peaches and pears.
They are not the same things to be compared to each other by counting and subtracting.
mmmmm - January 13, 2012
differential numbers on rebounding I am referring to.....
are the per game difference (average difference, if you will) between our team and our opposing team when they play us.
I’m mostly considering the overall rebound differential, but you can break it down to offensive and defensive, if you want to look closer.
Overall:
We were +3.1 in 2008 (T 3rd best in NBA), +4.5 in 2009 (2nd best), then fell off the cliff in 2010 to -1.5, and recovered a bit but still below sea level at -.08 in 2011.
so we went from stellar rebounding in the first 2 years to a complete drop to the bottom half after that. We have been generally out rebounded (on average) each night for the last 2 complete years.
Tom Halzack - January 13, 2012
That post above was in solely about the rebound numbers
The team has more than a few issues at this point.
Tom Halzack - January 13, 2012
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